Daily Darfur: What's Going on at the ICC?

by Michelle

Published February 12, 2009 @ 07:14AM PT

As Martha wrote last night, the New York Times reported last night that it received confirmation from high-level UN sources that the International Criminal Court had made the decision to indict Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, and that an official announcement of the charges was imminent. According to Martha's updates this morning, the ICC is now denying the reports, and saying that it has not yet reached a decision.

According to Colum Lynch at the Washington Post, who writes that the decision is expected in the next two weeks:

"The three-judge panel endorsed Moreno-Ocampo's claim that there is sufficient evidence to charge Bashir with crimes against humanity and war crimes, according to [an official at the UN], who declined to speak publicly because of the sensitivity of the case. But the panel rejected Moreno-Ocampo's contention that Bashir has committed genocide. One of the three judges dissented."

This is somewhat expected --- I will post soon on why I (and many others) support the "genocide" designation for Bashir's campaign in Darfur (in the meantime, watch this shocking video of testimony from former Janjaweed militias), but proving genocidal intent in a court of law is an incredibly difficult task. Several international law experts (who I don't want to throw under the bus, since I haven't taken the time to ask if I can cite them) told me, in personal conversations, that they didn't think ICC Chief Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo had enough evidence to nab Bashir on the genocide charge. (Which is certainly unfortunate.)

So why the leak? I'm betting that the New York Times wouldn't be likely to post such major news without a certain level of confidence in its sources...that is, enough confidence to allow it to weather the storm that could come from the ICC's denials....

***Warning: Venturing into the territory of wild speculation***

I think this might be an attempt, either by the UN or the ICC or both, to soften the political ground before the indictment is actually handed down. As I wrote previously, anxieties over Khartoum's reaction to the arrest warrant, once it becomes official, are running quite high --- by leaking the information in the days before the announcement, and then issuing an obligatory denial, someone out there might be trying to soften the blow, test the waters, or at least give a warning to the international community that this is finally coming.

The "heads up" might, in fact, be more for the benefit of the international community --- a sort of, "get off your hands and get ready, this is for real" type of warning. (See this blog post at ENOUGH for the implications/opportunities of the indictment for the Obama administration.

I'm also wondering how all of the media brew-ha-ha may or may not be influencing reports that Khartoum and Darfuri rebels are close to a ceasefire deal.

Just a thought. I'd love to hear what anyone else with insight into the matter has to say.

Here's a quick news round-up on the leak:

China's  Xinhaua News Agency

In an interesting --- if ambiguous --- change of tone, a spokeswoman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry commented that the ICC decision "should help to achieve stability in Sudan and a proper solution of the Darfur issue."

"The international community should create a more favorable international environment," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu told a regular briefing.

I'm not exactly sure what that means...or if it means anything useful at all...but it's different that China's usual condemnation of ICC.

Kenya's East African

A couple of  interesting quotes from the article:

Mark Malloch Brown, the UK's Africa minister:

"We will face a very difficult situation after this indictment, and I just hope people of goodwill will go on trying to find ways forward."

The paper also quotes Sudan's ambassador to the UN, Abdalmahmoud Abdalhaleem:

"It will mean nothing to us and doesn't deserve ink with which it is written," he told Reuters. "We will never be shaken by this criminal attempt to pollute our political life and sabotage our efforts for development and peace."

(I'm sorry --- what efforts towards development and peace?)

Sudan's Foreign Ministry

According to Reuters:

"We must wait for the announcement from the court," said Ali al-Sadig, spokesman for Sudan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

"The African Union and Arab League delegations are still working. China and Russia are also working with us. It is too early to talk about the results of this pressure .... We will react when the decision comes."