Daily Darfur: Ready or Not, Here it Comes

by Michelle

categories: Daily Darfur, Peace & Justice

Published March 04, 2009 @ 03:34AM PT

The announcement from the International Criminal Court on the indictment of Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir on 10 counts of war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide is just over an hour away. While many are bracing for a violent backlash from Khartoum, and the possible expulsion of international aid workers from the country, others are expecting a more measured response. Nick Wadhams of Time Magazine writes of mixed messages from Khartoum :

"Those contradictory messages point to what some experts believe is a widening gap between al-Bashir's supporters and other leaders in Sudan, who wouldn't necessarily mind seeing al-Bashir on trial. ‘An arrest warrant will change the dynamic of Sudanese politics radically,' says Christopher Hall, head of Amnesty International's Justice Project. ‘You have a President of your country who is subject to an international arrest warrant, a fugitive from justice, and the implications for the country will be enormous. My guess is that there will be some very serious thinking among senior members of the Cabinet about whether Sudan would be better off enforcing that arrest warrant.'"

Indeed, several major players have a lot to lose if Bashir goes nuts after the indictment --- countries like China and Russia, as well as the Arab League and African Union, have rallied behind Bashir in recent months. Their credibility on the international stage stands to falter further if he unleashes his fury on the civilians of Darfur....not to mention the threat to their economic (oil) interests, if Sudan descends once again into all-out civil war. As John Prendergast and Omer Ismail wrote in an op-ed yesterday:

"[Bashir's] staunchest supporters are backing away, slowly. China is deeply concerned that its oil investments will be put at risk by Bashir's continued warmongering. Arab states have similar concerns about their huge investments in Sudan's oil-fueled economic boom. Egypt in particular sees Bashir as a liability. His regime supported the assassination attempt against President Hosni Mubarak in 1995, backed Saddam Hussein in the two Gulf wars, and now is fully behind Hamas in Gaza."

My main fear is not that Khartoum will lash out at the indictment, but that the rebel groups --- those within Darfur, and those currently amassing on the other side of the Chadian border --- will use the moment to begin a new push against Sudanese forces, and possibly even Khartoum itself. As has been the pattern for six years, Khartoum will respond with disproportionate force, targeting civilians in its counterinsurgency campaign.

This would be beyond foolish, on the part of the rebels, but seems quite likely. After six years of failed counterinsurgency, the rebel groups need to assume a level responsibility for civilians deaths --- they know that Khartoum will target civilians. The pattern has repeated itself over and over again. Rebel forces are clearly no match for the Sudanese military, and rebel leaders need to consider the consequences of their actions and seek an alternative route. Or, they need to be held responsible for endangering the lives of the people the purport to fight for.

Omer Ismail has an excellent post at the ENOUGH blog in support of the ICC. He concludes:

"Sudan is a country with a long history of conflict and internal strife rooted  largely in the repressive government's relationship with its embattled peripheral populations. These dynamics of conflict and repression will not be resolved easily, and the Sudanese people need every scintilla of support the international community can muster to help end their agony and give them hope for a peaceful, democratic Sudan. The ICC's proceedings against President Bashir are crucial mechanisms that can contribute to the process of bringing justice to the long-suffering people of Darfur. Trivializing their pain or tolerating their butchers in the name of "stability" will neither bring them hope, nor will it lead to the resolution of-as compared to the mere management of-conflict not only in Darfur, but throughout Sudan."

Please read the whole post --- here.

The Guardian posted a helpful Q&A on the case, for those looking for a bit more background.